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  •   DISCUSSION PAGE - IMFA commented on this post about 9 months ago
    10th June 2019:

    STATUS:

    1/ Market has priced everything in, including trade war & recession. However, until positives arrive, price will trickle down in low volume. Low volume trickling down does not matter from the perspective of actual worth. However it matters from "extended sleep...
    10th June 2019:

    STATUS:

    1/ Market has priced everything in, including trade war & recession. However, until positives arrive, price will trickle down in low volume. Low volume trickling down does not matter from the perspective of actual worth. However it matters from "extended sleep requirement" i.e. patience perspective.

    2/ Consensus now is all negative. That's good. Even a small / basic positive news will provide a 30-40% jump. A trading opportunity.


    OPPORTUNITIES - SHORT TERM (6 months):

    1/ In H2 2017 and 2018 personal political aspirations and equations had had a heavy toll on IMFA itself. Stock ultimately crashed to almost 25% from the peak. No further political animosity is envisaged. The national and state elections are over with pretty solid result by NAMO and Navin Babu. That ensures no power to make trouble locally, no need to make trouble locally.

    2/ GoI's mandate is to resolve the NPA issue. Policy stability is seen. Now the Vice Chairman & the CEO may arrange to purchase of some good plants that had been facing bankruptcy. They may arrange the reimbursement of Rs. 350-400 crore stuck in various ministries for the past 4-4.5 years. Refer Q4 result doc. These two events if accomplished may catapult the stock to the highs of 2017.


    OPPORTUNITIES - LONG TERM (2 years):

    1/ The thermal Coal prices have crashed vis-a-vis 2018 and is likely to go down further. Ferrochrome prices have matched it until now. The two should show divergence, sometime, going ahead. That will lead to re-expansion of margins.
    2/ South African elections are over. Favorable policies will come out helping Ferrochrome business.
    3/ Indian elections are over. Favorable policies will come out helping Ferrochrome business.
    4/ Trade war issue will mellow down with November 2020 American Presidency elections.


    WHAT TO DO NOW?

    1/ Holders may sleep but may keep track on the news and info. For example: IMFA CFO just gave an interview in BTVi.
    2/ Spread such word, share such news items here. Just found and posted the above item.
    3/ Buy, if cash permits the long term timeline.
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    • Buying at 750 is buying at the top. First mistake. No "sight of respite", because, your view is short / medium term. That's the second mistake. Not yoBuying at 750 is buying at the top. First mistake. No "sight of respite", because, your view is short / medium term. That's the second mistake. Not your fault. We all, even this page, do that - because, everywhere it is talked liked that - especially for cyclical stocks. But that's not 100% true for one's own investments. It is perhaps fine - from people managing public money.

      However, along with short/medium term view, also keep one thing at the back of your mind........."Cyclical stories do come back, and perhaps, with a bigger force in the next cycle". That's the beauty of cyclical stocks. Never talked about. [Caution: Promoter Holding, Pledge, Debt Levels, Cash flow from Operations].

      For example: The last top was in 2010 when Sales was 600-1050 cr, profit was 41-162 crore, stock price was 750-900. After seven years in 2017 Sales was 1650-1750 cr, profit 240-180 cr, stock price 750-800. The same thing will repeat again at the next cycle top. That's the safety net. Now, doubling of an Investment within 7 years works out to be 10%+. That does not sound very catchy, but the fact is SBI FD for 5-10 years is 6.25% as of now. May be, when one's allocation is major, one starts to appreciate that 4% point alpha over an FD. Let's not calculate trippling for now, but have a plan ready for doubling your investment at the next cycle top.

      My general thought process (as this page show), however, is for "short / medium term optimization" perspective with much higher (30-40%) return aspiration. Should work out, but not with 60-100% probability. What's of 100% probability, is "Cyclical stories do come back, and perhaps, with a bigger force in the next cycle". Play accordingly, if nothing else materializes.
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    • Thanks for the response, in fact I am impressed with the depth of analysis and vision you have regarding the recommendations you make and then stick wThanks for the response, in fact I am impressed with the depth of analysis and vision you have regarding the recommendations you make and then stick with them, in fact that was one of the reason why I invested so heavily on one stock i.e. IMFA. After your reply, I again analysed the stock and realised what you mean by cylical, these stock have a cycle of 8 years and I bought my stocks when this was at the peak and preparing to slide to the bottom, with that in mind , so it has to reverse and it did reverse quite a bit by now and i assume it will again test its peak once the cycle revives. so now I understand when to buy this and sell also at the right time. but then the question is , if these stocks are not going to make any new highs despite the long cycle years , these are not investment stocks then , just take the advantage of cycle by investing and disposing at the right time of the cycle ,the dividend yield is however fantastic, more than FD rates. Thanks in advance, much appreciated.  More ...
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    • Another IMFA question, what do you think will be the future of this sector and IMFA in particular, specially after this CORONA meltdown
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    • Good afternoon , so as i understand, this sector may see its peak once again in probably 2023 when the cycle turns in its favour, so the share price wGood afternoon , so as i understand, this sector may see its peak once again in probably 2023 when the cycle turns in its favour, so the share price will also try to touch its all time high, so its prudent to buy the shares in 2022 and sell in 2023. so this sector is basically buy and sell at right time and not an investing opportunity. But these years still to come may prove to be difficult seeing the debt situation and loss which the company is making despite such an integrated play, can you please advise how to play this one   More ...
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    • Wait for the cycle to return. May be in 2021 or simply in 8 years from last peak. Somewhere sometime the holding price needs to be made right though.
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