It is difficult to identify the start of a major stock market uptrend if you are relying on headlines and news. By the time, reporters figure out what’s going on in the stock market, the best part is over.
At MarketSmith India , we have a defined set of rules to identify the upturn in the market. It will remove any personal judgment.
It relies on a follow-through day (FTD), a device identified by historical research.
Follow-Through Day occurs if a benchmark index (Nifty in our case) delivers a strong gain in a volume higher than the previous session. That big gain on rising volume is follow-through day, which confirms that a new uptrend is underway.
Currently, we are in a Rally Attempt as the Nifty was able to hold above its Day 1 low of 11,634 for the next two consecutive sessions. We wait for a follow-through day to occur to confirm the uptrend as most of the major rallies in the market start with a follow-through day.
A follow-through day can’t pick the exact day when a market bottoms, but it can get you close to the bottom. The most powerful follow-throughs usually occur on the fourth to the seventh day of an attempted rally.
During July–September 2019, Nifty corrected around 11%. Most of the stocks declined during this period. On September 20, 2019, Nifty advanced over 5.3% on volume that was higher than the previous session due to the announcement of a corporate tax cut, which qualified as an FTD. Hence, we changed the market status to a Confirmed Uptrend.
There will be cases in which confirmed rallies fail. A few large institutional investors, who have large funds, can run up the market on a particular day and create an impression of a follow-through. Hence, the follow-through day should be used in conjunction with other indicators to provide firm evidence. One of the other indicators is simply to check if there are fundamentally good stocks breaking out of sound bases.
A follow-through signal doesn’t mean investors should go and buy with abandon. It just gives you the go-ahead to choose high-quality stocks with strong sales and EPS growth as they break out of their bases.