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Do Not Sell Stocks In The Buyback! (SIS)

The stock has already moved up in the last couple of months on the back of strong growth expectations from the security sector. The quarterly results have been pretty good even during the lockdown phase. These companies reported sharp improvement in margins leading to high profit growth so the stock price has reacted positively. From a wise point of view though, the stock is expected to do well, so it is better to HOLD and NOT tender in buyback. AVOID this buyback due to SMALL SIZE AND LOW ENTITLEMENT & ACCEPTANCE RATIO.

Shareholders usually want a steady stream of increasing dividends from the company. And one of the goals of company executives is to maximize shareholder wealth. However, company executives must balance appeasing shareholders with staying nimble if the economy dips into a recession

One of the hardest-hit banks during the Great Recession was Bank of America Corporation (BAC). The bank has recovered nicely since then, but still has some work to do in getting back to its former glory. However, as of the end of 2017, Bank of America had bought back nearly 300 million shares over the prior 12-month period.2 Although the dividend has increased over the same period, the bank's executive management has consistently allocated more cash to share repurchases rather than dividends. 

Why are buybacks favored over dividends? If the economy slows or falls into recession, the bank might be forced to cut its dividend to preserve cash. The result would undoubtedly lead to a sell-off in the stock. However, if the bank decided to buy back fewer shares, achieving the same preservation of capital as a dividend cut, the stock price would likely take less of a hit. Committing to dividend payouts with steady increases will certainly drive a company's stock higher, but the dividend strategy can be a double-edged sword for a company. In the event of a recession, share buybacks can be decreased more easily than dividends, with a far less negative impact on the stock price.

 

The Stock Is Undervalued

Another major motive for businesses to do buybacks: They genuinely feel their shares are undervalued. Undervaluation occurs for a number of reasons, often due to investors' inability to see past a business' short-term performance, sensationalist news items or a general bearish sentiment. A wave of stock buybacks swept the United States in 2010 and 2011 when the economy was undergoing a nascent recovery from the Great Recession.3 Many companies began making optimistic forecasts for the coming years, but company stock prices still reflected the economic doldrums that plagued them in years prior. These companies invested in themselves by repurchasing shares, hoping to capitalize when share prices finally began to reflect new, improved economic realities.

If a stock is dramatically undervalued, the issuing company can repurchase some of its shares at this reduced price and then re-issue them once the market has corrected, thereby increasing its equity capital without issuing any additional shares. Though it can be a risky move in the event that prices stay low, this maneuver can enable businesses who still have long-term need of capital financing to increase their equity without further diluting company ownership.

For example, let's assume a company issues 100,000 shares at $25 per share, raising $2.5 million in equity. An ill-timed news item questioning the company's leadership ethics causes panicked shareholders to begin to sell, driving the price down to $15 per share. The company decides to repurchase 50,000 shares at $15 per share for a total outlay of $750,000 and wait out the frenzy. The business remains profitable and launches a new and exciting product line the following quarter, driving the price up past the original offering price to $35 per share. After regaining its popularity, the company reissues the 50,000 shares at the new market price for a total capital influx of $1.75 million. Because of the brief undervaluation of its stock, the company was able to turn $2.5 million in equity into $3.5 million without further diluting ownership by issuing additional shares.

 

It's a Quick Fix for the Financial Statement

Buying back stock can also be an easy way to make a business look more attractive to investors. By reducing the number of outstanding shares, a company's earnings per share (EPS) ratio is automatically increased – because its annual earnings are now divided by a lower number of outstanding shares. For example, a company that earns $10 million in a year with 100,000 outstanding shares has an EPS of $100. If it repurchases 10,000 of those shares, reducing its total outstanding shares to 90,000, its EPS increases to $111.11 without any actual increase in earnings.

Also, short-term investors often look to make quick money by investing in a company leading up to a scheduled buyback. The rapid influx of investors artificially inflates the stock's valuation and boosts the company's price to earnings ratio (P/E). The return on equity (ROE) ratio is another important financial metric that receives an automatic boost.

One interpretation of a buyback is that the company is financially healthy and no longer needs excess equity funding. It can also be viewed by the market that management has enough confidence in the company to reinvest in itself. Share buybacks are generally seen as less risky than investing in research and development for new technology or acquiring a competitor; it's a profitable action, as long as the company continues to grow. Investors typically see share buybacks as a positive sign for appreciation in the future. As a result, share buybacks can lead to a rush of investors buying the stock.  

 

Downside of Buybacks

A stock buyback affects a company's credit rating if it has to borrow money to repurchase the shares. Many companies finance stock buybacks because the loan interest is tax-deductible. However, debt obligations drain cash reserves, which are frequently needed when economic winds shift against a company. For this reason, credit reporting agencies view such-financed stock buybacks in a negative light: They do not see boosting EPS or capitalizing on undervalued shares as a good justification for taking on debt. A downgrade in credit rating often follows such a maneuver.

 

Effect on the Economy

Despite the above, buybacks can be good for a company's economics. How about the economy as a whole? Stock buybacks can have a mildly positive effect on the economy overall. They tend to have a much more direct and positive effect on the financial economy, as they lead to rising stock prices.

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