The union budget-2018 which will be presented by the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on 1st February 2018 is expected to be a significant one, as it is the last full-blown budget of Modi govt, before the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Ahead of the Budget-2018, India’s Economic Survey, the ministry’s view on annual economic expansion of the country, will be presented today, 29 January, 2018 in both houses of Parliament.
There has been a huge amount of hopefulness since the Narendra Modi-led BJP government was come into power. Visibly, the market impetus has been enormously strong. While looking on the budget on the share market perspectives, the Nifty and Sensex on a roll and it seems there is no gap likely to the rally. The indices have emerged a long way during the last two years by the Modi government’s policy measures along with FDI inflows and macro-economic developments.
Share markets are on a constant bull run with Sensex gained nearly 1700 points since the beginning of 2018. The key factor behind the Sensex growth is the hopes from the union budget.
After the Union Budget on February 1, 2016, presented by FM Arun Jaitley, the Sensex has gained nearly 13,000 points, with a gain of 56. The Nifty has also gained about 4,000 points or 57% from 6,976 during the period. The indices which have registered record gains this year will feature Narendra Modi government's last full year Budget on February 1.
In this budget 2018-19, investors look forward to changes in the direct tax makeup including income tax. Infrastructure sector is also expected to be on focus by the budget. Several economists are advising the govt to slash corporate tax rates so as make the Indian industries better than others on a global level.
Market analysts are of view that there is rich liquidity in the market in the midst of limited availability of stocks which may lead to a correction in key benchmark indices in the near future.
With crude prices having risen more than 50 percent since past 6 months with inflation above RBI's comfort level, India's macro-economic points have worsened to some extent. On the other hand, recently announced corporate earnings are better than expectations. Private sector market capitalization has started gaining strength and the PSU banks’ recap will be expected to boost the credit off-take.
It is expected that markets to be quite volatile on budget day and stocks related to FMGC, agri, rural and infrastructure sector may perform well. This budget is expected to expose steps to enhance agriculture and announce farmer centric steps on a large scale as market valuations are quite rich.