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 ankit shah's Stock Idea
Ankit shah is Bullish on Bharat Forge Ltd.
Idea Submitted on 06Dec,2018
  • 5 Total Ideas
  • 2 Active Ideas
  • 3 Closed Ideas
  • 0 Friends
  • 0 Followers
  • Avg. Returns
     -2.66%
    Rank
    53
    Success Rate
      20%
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      Idea Status :  Closed
    Stop Loss Triggered
    Idea Closed at 498.2 (11Dec,18 09:17:am)
     Time Frame
    3months
     Start Price
    521.4
     Target Price
    550
     Stop Loss
    500
     Projected Gain
    28.6 (5.49% Upside)
     Returns Achieved
    -23.2     -4.45%
     Analysis
    time to log in for bharat forge : 522  Class 8 sales constitutes only 11.89 pc of Bharat forge sales and fall is largely in expected line as OEMs have nearly filled their order boards for 2019. Class 8 orders for the last 12 moths have totalled 499,000 units. when I dissect into detail, A couple of the OEMs that had some open capacity actually had solid order numbers, while the rest appear to be nearly sold out for next year. so order book is expected to remain weak in December also. I won’t be surprised if December order book comes below 25000 also. Cancellations if any are largely due to long order book.  Freight market is still strong in USA and expected to remain strong at least for next 2-3 quarters.Disaggregation of the medium- and heavy-duty markets reveals that medium-duty order activity perpetuated its trend-like bias in November, with orders for 25,100 vehicles in line with short and long-run averages. In the past six and 12 months, medium-duty orders have averaged 24,000 and 24,900, respectively. EBIDTA margins to see some pick up with softening of commodity prices.  Management indicated Rs410m of forex losses in 2QFY19 due to mark-tomarket revaluation of foreign currency assets and liabilities which we believe is likely to be revered in Q3. Stock looks attractive at 18x FY20e EPS of INR 28.9   Can be bought at current levels 
     Stock Price Movement (EOD Basis)
     C.M.P Bharat Forge
    513.55
    Sentimeter
    Buy Calls: 4 Sell Calls: 2
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